Droughts in Jamaica: A Growing Climate Risk

Water: The Foundation of Human Development Water is a fundamental natural resource supporting human well-being, economic development, public health, food and energy security, and environmental sustainability. Water resources and the services they provide underpin poverty reduction, economic growth, livelihoods, and ecosystem health. Reliable access to safe and affordable water is therefore essential to human development and social well-being (UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme, 2015). Globally, water security is becoming an increasingly urgent challenge. Population growth, climate change, urban expansion, pollution, and pressures on water infrastructure are placing increasing demands on freshwater resources (UN-Water, n.d.). Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including Jamaica, are particularly vulnerable because of their limited land area, exposure to climate-related hazards, dependence on variable rainfall, and limited capacity to develop resilient infrastructure. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate existing pressures on freshwater resources in small islands (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2022; World Bank, 2021). For Jamaica, water security is no longer simply an issue of water supply. It is a complex national development challenge involving climate variability and change, infrastructure management, spatial planning, technology, governance, financing, and the capacity to make timely decisions based on accurate information (Government of Jamaica, 2019; Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change, 2026). From the perspective of the Mona GeoInformatics Institute (MGI), addressing Jamaica’s water challenges requires a shift toward a data-driven and spatially enabled approach, where Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), remote sensing, Internet of Things (IoT) and real-time monitoring technologies become central tools in managing one of the country’s most valuable resources. Understanding Jamaica’s Water Security Challenges Jamaica’s water challenge is defined by a combination of climate pressures, infrastructure limitations, geographic inequalities, poor planning, and operational inefficiencies. Jamaica experiences significant seasonal and spatial variation in rainfall, which is critical to the country’s surface and groundwater resources, including rivers, springs, wells, and aquifers. While the island receives substantial annual rainfall, its distribution varies considerably across seasons and locations. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall variability and alter the timing and spatial distribution of precipitation, alongside more frequent drought conditions and intense rainfall events, creating additional challenges for water security. (Government of Jamaica, 2020, 2021; Townsend et al., 2020). Periods of below-average rainfall have resulted in widespread meteorological drought conditions across several parishes. During these periods, water supply systems experience reduced yields, forcing the National Water Commission (NWC) and other providers to implement emergency measures such as water trucking, reduced supply schedules, and restrictions on non-essential water use. The NWC is Jamaica’s primary government-owned provider of potable water and sewerage services across the island. Jamaica is experiencing another climate-related challenge: increasingly intense rainfall events. Heavy rainfall associated with tropical storms and hurricanes can cause rivers and springs to become highly turbid, carry sediment and debris into water intakes, damage pipelines and other water infrastructure through flooding and landslides, and disrupt treatment operations. High turbidity can make water treatment difficult or, in some cases, require treatment plants to temporarily shut down (National Water Commission [NWC], n.d.; Government of Jamaica, 2019). Jamaica therefore faces a dual water-management challenge: prolonged dry periods can result in water shortages, while intense rainfall events can produce excess runoff, flooding, and limited opportunities for water capture. The challenge is therefore not simply the availability of water, but the capacity to effectively capture, store, distribute, and manage water resources. Achieving a balance between water supply, storage, and demand is consequently critical to strengthening Jamaica’s water security. What is Drought and Why Does It Matter to Jamaica? Drought is a prolonged period of below-average rainfall that results in reduced water availability. Unlike hurricanes or floods, drought develops gradually, often making its impacts less visible until water systems begin to fail. There are several types of drought: Meteorological Drought This occurs when rainfall levels are significantly below historical averages. Jamaica has experienced several periods where rainfall deficits have affected multiple parishes simultaneously. For example, the National Water Sector Policy (2019) provides an excellent example. It reports that in June 2015, Jamaica’s average rainfall was 40 mm, approximately 72% below the 30-year (1971–2000) mean. More importantly, all parishes recorded below-normal rainfall in 2015. In June specifically, St. Mary and St. Thomas received only about 8% of their respective 30-year normals, while Clarendon received 9%. Hydrological Drought This occurs when reduced rainfall affects rivers, reservoirs, groundwater supplies, and other water sources. Hydrological drought directly affects water supply systems because less water is available for extraction. Agricultural Drought This affects soil moisture and crop production, creating challenges for farmers and food security. Socioeconomic Drought This occurs when water shortages begin affecting communities, businesses, tourism, and economic activities. For Jamaica, effective drought monitoring must extend beyond rainfall measurements alone. A comprehensive understanding of drought conditions requires the integration of rainfall data with information on watershed conditions, groundwater levels, land-use changes, population and water demand, infrastructure capacity, water storage and distribution systems, and climate projections. This integrated approach provides a more complete assessment of water availability, vulnerability, and drought risk. This is where geospatial technologies become essential. The Water Management Landscape in Jamaica Water security is a shared responsibility involving multiple stakeholders. National Water Commission (NWC) The NWC is Jamaica’s largest water provider and plays a central role in the development, operation, and maintenance of public water supply systems. NWC’s responsibilities include water abstraction, treatment, distribution, infrastructure management, and customer service. However, like many water utilities globally, the NWC faces significant operational and financial challenges. A major concern is the high level of Non-Revenue Water (NRW), with more than 74% of treated water reportedly lost through leakage, illegal connections, and aging infrastructure, some of which is over 70 years old. These losses increase operating and energy costs while placing additional pressure on the utility’s financial position, which is further affected by customer arrears and project funding shortfalls. These structural challenges are compounded by increasing water demand and the impacts of climate variability and change. Severe droughts can reduce inflows to major reservoirs, contributing to water restrictions and placing additional

The Mona GeoInformatics Institute (MGI) participated in Day 1 of the Spatial ArcGIS User Conference Experience 2026, held on September 29 at the AC Hotel in Kingston. The conference brought together geospatial professionals, government agencies, academia, industry partners, and other stakeholders to share experiences and explore developments in geospatial technology. Representing MGI were Luke Buchanan, Executive Director, and Romario Anderson, Senior Research and Projects Manager. Their participation provided an opportunity to engage with fellow GIS professionals, exchange ideas, and gain insights into emerging technologies and approaches within the geospatial sector. A notable highlight of the conference was the display of MGI’s flood, landslide, and Hurricane Melissa impact maps as part of the conference’s map gallery. The maps showcased MGI’s application of geospatial data and technology to visualise hazards and disaster impacts and demonstrate the value of spatial information in supporting disaster preparedness, response, planning, and decision-making. See MGI’s maps here: https://userconference.spatialvision.com/map-gallery/ The conference also provided a valuable platform for MGI to share aspects of Jamaica’s geospatial work with the wider geospatial community and to connect with organisations working across government, academia, and the private sector. The 2026 Spatial ArcGIS User Conference was a productive opportunity for learning, knowledge exchange, networking, and showcasing Jamaica’s growing capacity in geospatial technology and spatial data applications. MGI looks forward to continuing to engage with the geospatial community and exploring opportunities to apply innovative GIS technologies to Jamaica’s development and resilience challenges. Let us have a conversation about how we can use GIS to help your organization. #MGI #MonaGeoInformaticsInstitute #GIS #Geospatial #ArcGIS #Jamaica #SpatialData #DisasterRiskManagement #HurricaneMelissa #SpatialArcGISUserConference #Geospatial #Jamaica #QGIS #MonaGIS #Innovation #Technology Contact us for more information:Email: info@monagis.comWeb: www.monagis.comPhone: (876) 671-7001 / (876) 816-8791Socials: @mgimonaSend us a quick message: https://main.monagis.com/contact-us/

For generations, homeownership has represented one of the most important aspirations for Jamaican families. A home is more than a physical structure; it provides security, stability, dignity, and a foundation for better lives and future opportunities. Secure housing enables families to build assets over time, strengthen community ties, and improve access to employment, education, healthcare, and other essential services (UN-Habitat, n.d.). Yet for many Jamaicans today, particularly young professionals and working families, homeownership is becoming increasingly difficult to attain as housing costs continue to outpace income growth. Public discussion often centres on mortgage rates, rising construction costs, or the availability of National Housing Trust (NHT) benefits. While these are important considerations, they represent only part of the challenge. Jamaica’s housing crisis is not solely an economic issue. It is also a social and spatial one. From the perspective of the Mona GeoInformatics Institute (MGI), housing should not simply be viewed as the construction of buildings. It should be understood as an integral component of the broader urban system, connecting people with employment, transportation, infrastructure, public services, environmental sustainability, and climate resilience. Where we build is therefore just as important as what we build. At MGI for example, we have mapped across Jamaica where people desire to live. Housing decisions must be informed by how communities function, not simply by where land is available (UN-Habitat, 2026). Adequate housing is more than a roof over one’s head. It is a foundation for health, education, dignity, safety and social inclusion, and a prerequisite for people to fully participate in social and economic life. Jamaica therefore requires housing reform that is informed by geospatial evidence and designed around the realities of how people live, work, travel, and adapt to an increasingly climate-exposed future. Housing Prices Are Outpacing Jamaican Incomes The widening gap between household incomes and housing prices has become one of the defining development challenges facing Jamaica. Although the country has achieved notable macroeconomic stability, housing affordability has continued to deteriorate as construction costs, insurance premiums, financing costs, labour shortages, and the cost of climate-resilient construction increasingly outpace wage growth (OECD, 2025; UN-Habitat, 2024). The result is a growing mismatch between the housing being produced and the purchasing power of the people it is intended to serve. Young professionals earning respectable salaries frequently find themselves unable to purchase homes within reasonable commuting distance of their workplaces. Developments offering modest two-bedroom homes can now exceed US$250,000, placing them beyond the reach of many middle-income households. This is not simply a matter of individual financial planning. It reflects a structural disconnect between income levels and the housing market. As UN-Habitat has consistently argued, adequate housing must be affordable, accessible, and connected to opportunities. Housing that consumes an unsustainable proportion of household income or forces families to sacrifice other basic needs cannot be considered truly affordable. The Geography of Housing Matters Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of Jamaica’s housing challenge is geography. Housing developments continue to emerge across the island, yet many are located increasingly far from the country’s primary employment centres. As housing near Kingston and other urban hubs becomes less attainable, workers are being pushed further from where they earn their livelihoods. This has significant consequences. Longer commuting distances increase transportation costs, contribute to traffic congestion, reduce family and leisure time, increase fuel consumption, and negatively affect productivity and overall quality of life. Geographers and urban planners have long recognised that accessibility is a critical component of urban development. Hansen’s (1959) pioneering work demonstrated that the ease with which people can reach employment, services, and other opportunities influences both land-use patterns and economic development. Building on this foundation, Geurs and van Wee (2004) argued that accessibility should be evaluated through the interaction of land use and transportation systems, emphasizing that planning for housing, transport, and economic activity must be integrated rather than undertaken in isolation. Modern Geographic Information Systems (GIS) now enable planners to measure travel times, evaluate accessibility to employment, identify underserved communities, and model the impacts of future development before construction even begins. Housing policy should therefore be guided not only by land availability, but also by how effectively residents can access employment, schools, healthcare, and public transportation” (Geurs & van Wee, 2004). Building More Homes Does Not Necessarily Solve the Problem Housing supply remains important, but supply alone is not enough. The more important question is whether the housing being delivered reflects the needs and purchasing power of Jamaican households. Can teachers, nurses, police officers, public servants, university graduates, consultants, and other young professionals realistically afford these developments without experiencing housing affordability stress or assuming unsustainable levels of debt? When the housing market consistently produces homes that are beyond the reach of moderate-income households, the issue ceases to be merely an economic one and becomes a social challenge. Households are forced to delay homeownership, postpone starting families, remain in overcrowded living arrangements, relocate further from employment opportunities, or migrate altogether in search of more affordable living conditions. These outcomes can weaken social cohesion, increase commuting burdens, reduce disposable income, and contribute to widening spatial inequalities across urban regions (Stone, 2006; UN-Habitat, 2020). From a geospatial perspective, the consequences are equally significant. As workers move further from employment centres in search of affordable housing, cities experience longer commuting distances, increased traffic congestion, greater transport costs, higher greenhouse gas emissions, and growing pressure on infrastructure. These patterns reinforce what urban economists describe as the jobs–housing mismatch, where affordable housing and employment opportunities become increasingly disconnected geographically (Kain, 1968; Geurs & van Wee, 2004). Housing policy must therefore move beyond simply increasing the number of housing units. It must ensure that affordable housing is delivered in locations that provide reasonable access to employment, transportation, education, healthcare, and other essential services. From MGI’s perspective, the question is not simply whether houses are being built, but whether the spatial relationship between housing, employment, transportation, public services, and environmental risk creates communities that are socially inclusive, economically productive, and environmentally resilient. Climate Change Is Reshaping Housing

The Mona GeoInformatics Institute (MGI) was pleased to contribute to the 2026 Emancipation Lecture, hosted by the Churches Emancipation Lecture Committee (CELC) at Webster Memorial United Church under the theme: “Disasters, the Built Environment and Emancipation.” The distinguished lecturer for 2026 was Professor Carol Archer of the University of Technology, Jamaica, who delivered a thought-provoking presentation examining the historical, social, environmental, and spatial dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in Jamaica. Professor Archer’s lecture explored the meaning of disasters, the built environment, and the continuing relevance of emancipation within the Jamaican context. She examined the role of the church in social development, the impacts of climate change, disaster recovery challenges, and the disproportionate impacts of disasters on vulnerable groups, including low-income communities, women, children, and the elderly. Drawing on the devastating impacts of Hurricane Melissa, she highlighted how existing social and economic inequalities often determine who is most exposed and least able to recover following disasters. A central theme of Professor Archer’s presentation was the relationship between emancipation and land ownership. She emphasized that while emancipation in 1838 ended slavery, it did not guarantee access to land ownership for formerly enslaved Africans. The continued challenges associated with land access and secure tenure have contributed to inequality, informal settlements, and increased vulnerability to environmental hazards. She argued that land reform remains essential to achieving true freedom, resilience, and sustainable development in Jamaica. Professor Archer highlighted: “Legal access to land is limited and has contributed to inequality, informal settlements, and greater vulnerability to disasters, making land reform an important part of achieving true freedom and resilience.” MGI extends sincere appreciation to Professor Hopeton Dunn of The University of the West Indies, Mona, Chairman of the Churches Emancipation Lecture Committee, for inviting MGI to participate in this important national conversation. MGI Showcases the Role of Geospatial Technology in Disaster Resilience As part of the event, MGI showcased how Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), GeoAI, and spatial data support disaster preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery. Participants engaged with MGI’s work in understanding and managing Jamaica’s natural hazards, including: MGI displayed its Natural Hazards Tracker Web Map, which provides access to historical and spatial information on hazards affecting Jamaica. The exhibition also featured interactive mapping of Hurricane Melissa’s 2025 track and impact, highlighting the value of geospatial technologies in understanding hazard exposure and supporting evidence-based decision-making. Historical hazard information was also presented, including the impacts of the 1907 Kingston Earthquake, demonstrating how lessons from past disasters can inform present-day preparedness and resilience planning. Visitors also received information on earthquake and hurricane preparedness, mitigation strategies, and the importance of using data-driven approaches to reduce disaster risk. MGI highlighted how geospatial technologies can support governments, communities, and organizations through improved hazard mapping, vulnerability assessments, emergency planning, and post-disaster assessments. Building Jamaica’s Capacity Through GIS, Drones, and Digital Innovation MGI also highlighted its capacity-building programmes designed to strengthen Jamaica’s disaster resilience. These include training in: Through these programmes, MGI continues to support institutions and communities in developing the technical capacity needed to better understand risks, prepare for disasters, and make informed decisions. Speaking after the event, MGI Executive Director Mr. Luke Buchanan who attended the lecture emphasized the importance of connecting technology, data, and community resilience: “Disasters are not only natural events; they are shaped by where people live, the resources they have access to, and the systems available to support them. At MGI, we believe that geospatial technology provides the evidence needed to understand vulnerability, target interventions, and build a more resilient Jamaica. By combining GIS, AI, drones, and community-based data, we can help decision-makers move from reacting to disasters toward proactively reducing risk.” MGI remains committed to advancing the use of geospatial intelligence, innovation, and capacity development to support Jamaica’s disaster resilience agenda and contribute to a future where communities are better prepared, informed, and equipped to withstand environmental challenges. #MGI #GIS #GeospatialTechnology #DisasterResilience #ClimateAction #Jamaica #HazardMapping #ResilientJamaica #DigitalInnovation #SustainableDevelopment Contact us for more information:Email: info@monagis.comWeb: www.monagis.comPhone: (876) 671-7001 / (876) 816-8791Socials: @mgimonaSend us a quick message: https://main.monagis.com/contact-us/